The following was sent to me from my friend, Nathan, who is studying the effects of centralized and social media on democratic reforms in the Middle East. It provides a little contextual nuance. Also, Nathan recommends Marc Lynch's contributions at Foreign Policy: http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/blog/2202
Here's Nathan:
Well, as you can imagine, I have been riveted by what has been occurring in Cairo and across Egypt, and I've been following events very closely.
Here's one first person account of some of the clashes near Tahrir today:
http://www.theatlantic.com/
AJE is reporting that there are sizable anti-regime protests in Luxor. This is really the first I've heard of significant protests in Upper Egypt, which could be telling.
My take on some of the action today by "pro-Mubarak" supporters/protesters/
One possibility: This "counter-revolution" may have been what Mubarak gearing up for all week. A planned rollout of "concessions," (in two separate speeches) while pro-regime planners organized the plainclothes security forces, "thugs" and other recruits for days, to build up numbers and unleash a coordinated attack to retake the square. The Army's relaxed stance during much of this suggests that they may be complicit in -- or at least aware of -- this strategy. Difficult to know for sure, though.
One other thought is that it might NOT be Mubarak directly or even people around him, but remnants/core of the NDP who have so much to lose, and who are organizing and mobilizing the violent types. Two facts that people on the streets have established today: 1) that at least some people coming to confront protesters in Tahrir were plainclothes police/security (IDs were confiscated by anti-regime protesters) and 2) people were either paid (I've heard figures ranging from 50LE to 400LE [maybe exaggerated], 50 seems more realistic) or "forced" to come with the threat of no more paycheck until things return to "normal."
A CNN reporter said that at a pro-Mubarak rally he witnessed earlier today, he was being hassled by people - as a member of the media and as many others have been today - but that also three men approached him independently and told him they worked for the national petrol company/ministry and that they had been ORDERED to come and take part in the rally.
Various state television channels in Egypt have been in full propaganda mode today: one woman interviewed on Mehwar TV, an alleged activist, claimed she was trained by "Jews in America" to topple the Egyptian regime.
Whether it's Mubarak, those around him or broader NDP or Interior Ministry people orchestrating this, all of it pretty clearly demonstrates that this regime is a master of its craft.
Here's Nathan:
Well, as you can imagine, I have been riveted by what has been occurring in Cairo and across Egypt, and I've been following events very closely.
Here's one first person account of some of the clashes near Tahrir today:
http://www.theatlantic.com/
AJE is reporting that there are sizable anti-regime protests in Luxor. This is really the first I've heard of significant protests in Upper Egypt, which could be telling.
My take on some of the action today by "pro-Mubarak" supporters/protesters/
One possibility: This "counter-revolution" may have been what Mubarak gearing up for all week. A planned rollout of "concessions," (in two separate speeches) while pro-regime planners organized the plainclothes security forces, "thugs" and other recruits for days, to build up numbers and unleash a coordinated attack to retake the square. The Army's relaxed stance during much of this suggests that they may be complicit in -- or at least aware of -- this strategy. Difficult to know for sure, though.
One other thought is that it might NOT be Mubarak directly or even people around him, but remnants/core of the NDP who have so much to lose, and who are organizing and mobilizing the violent types. Two facts that people on the streets have established today: 1) that at least some people coming to confront protesters in Tahrir were plainclothes police/security (IDs were confiscated by anti-regime protesters) and 2) people were either paid (I've heard figures ranging from 50LE to 400LE [maybe exaggerated], 50 seems more realistic) or "forced" to come with the threat of no more paycheck until things return to "normal."
A CNN reporter said that at a pro-Mubarak rally he witnessed earlier today, he was being hassled by people - as a member of the media and as many others have been today - but that also three men approached him independently and told him they worked for the national petrol company/ministry and that they had been ORDERED to come and take part in the rally.
Various state television channels in Egypt have been in full propaganda mode today: one woman interviewed on Mehwar TV, an alleged activist, claimed she was trained by "Jews in America" to topple the Egyptian regime.
Whether it's Mubarak, those around him or broader NDP or Interior Ministry people orchestrating this, all of it pretty clearly demonstrates that this regime is a master of its craft.
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